Has liberalisation delivered Uganda from hell? Part I

The birth of economic liberalisation at national level, in modern times, could in a way, be traced back to the US in 1978 under the presidency of Jimmy Carter. Commercial Airlines were obliged to fly to and from various destinations over there. However, most routes were unprofitable. The carriers were obliged to provide a national good; to expedite movement of people and goods across that vast country.

According to Wikipedia, “Since 1938, the federal Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) had regulated all domestic interstate air transport routes as a public utility, setting fares, routes, and schedules. …..”

However, it was not unusual for out and in-bound flights to land with less than a dozen passengers. Under the then economic dispensation, the government was bound to compensate airlines for such glaring losses. And owing to the bail-outs, some airlines cut a niche; with particular routes solely belonging to them.

President Carter’s government took decisive action. The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, which was geared at expunging government control over fares, routes and market entry (of new airlines) came into force. “The Civil Aeronautics Board’s powers of regulation were phased out, eventually allowing passengers to be exposed to market forces in the airline industry.” This Act basically freed up the skies. Henceforth, there would be no ring-fencing of routes. Financial bailouts were expunged.

However, the new law was not devoid of repercussions. “Exposure to competition led to heavy losses and conflicts with labour unions for a number of carriers. Between 1978 and mid-2001, nine major carriers, including: Eastern, Midway, Braniff, PanAm, Continental, American West Airlines, Northwest Airlines, TWA, and more than 100 smaller airlines went bankrupt or were liquidated—including most of the dozens of new airlines founded in deregulation’s aftermath….” A few, like South West Airlines and Jet Blue, which adapted to changed times, remained in the sky and financially buoyant.

Another noteworthy episode of liberalisation and privatisation occurred in Britain in 1980/81 during the tenure of Margaret Thatcher. Several large economic units had, since World War II days, been nationalised by Labour party governments – which derived immense support from workers and unions. The decision was premised on the need to keep many citizens gainfully employed, and to stem unrest.

This policy, however, disenfranchised the Conservative Party during diverse national elections. On the flipside, it negatively impacted the national coffers. By the time Lady Thatcher, of the Conservative Party, romped to victory in May 1979, Britain’s economy was in reverse gear; underpinned by rising unemployment. Determined to sanitise the economy, she went in headlong for privatisation of some state enterprises.

Her policies emphasised deregulation, especially of the financial sector; flexible labour markets; and curtailing the powers of trade unions. Although she became unpopular, the country’s economy gradually recovered.

Uganda’s case
Back home, the situation was not very different. Between the late 1950s and 1990s, government was the largest employer of Uganda’s modern labour force; through a myriad of parastatal bodies. However, owing to chapters of political and economic instability – Amin’s Economic War, regime changes, and civil wars – the working ethos of several managers and employees ebbed; especially between the mid-1970s and 1991, leading to virtual collapse of these institutions.

The plight of these parastatal bodies was exacerbated by actions of the political kingpins of the day. Ministers and powerful MPs were wont to order managers to cushion their family and political expenditures; which often included school fees, weddings, construction of personal mansions, etc. Often times, these favours had to be extended to the ministers’ friends and political party supporters. Interference in the smooth running of these bodies became the norm rather than the exception.

And, not to be outdone in the apparent free-for-all activity, several parastatal managers threw caution to the wind. They, too, began dipping their fingers in the till. In tandem, junior managers and lower staff lost zeal for honesty and hard work. In the end, many parastatals could neither shoulder running costs nor post profits. Their last resort was constant financial intervention from the government; and yet the government’s recurrent and development expenditure heavily depended on external borrowing!

Fast forward:
A few years down the road, after the NRA/M shot into power, eminent economists in the Finance ministry, in concert with Bretton woods managers, prevailed upon government to swallow the bitter pill and restructure the economy. Among the highlights of the reforms was privatisation and liberalisation of the economy; and downsizing of the civil service and armed forces – albeit with a lot of cursing from thousands that were adversely affected. Many folks who could not retool and seek employment in the changed economic status quo, walloped in poverty.

Repatriation law
For purposes of today’s discussion, we shall restrict ourselves to the policy of wooing foreign investors, and lifting the lid off the Capital Account. Under the latter policy, investors were and are still free to plough their money into various sectors of the economy but also free to repatriate their profits; as and when they wish; to either enjoy the fruits of their sweat with their shareholders abroad or re-invest elsewhere.

Privatisation was premised on the need to stem corruption; enhance quality; productivity; and business efficiency which had hitherto taken a back seat over the years alluded to. This imperative, according to government and its external partners would be better understood and implemented to the letter by private sector operators, whose primary interest would be profit. The government, on its part would render a better regulatory framework, security and infrastructure; and above all, allow them to repatriate their profits. A decade after the privatisation exercise, the government had bagged more than Shs400b into its coffers.

Courtesy of the structural reforms and foreign investments, economic growth was enhanced. According to various reports, pro-market reforms and macroeconomic stability resulted in sustained economic growth. The GDP hovered at an average of six per cent over several years. Uganda was declassified from the list of failed states and described as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The financial sector was also streamlined and liberalised, leading to entry more muscled players; as was the case with the telecom industry and other sectors.

By 10th June 2015, when the National Budget was read, the GDP stood at Shs75 trillion or $25 billion. Out of Shs23.9 trillion, Uganda could raise Shs11.3 trillion from domestic revenue, unlike two decades earlier. Part of this money would accrue from taxes paid by foreign investors. Parliament was told by President Yoweri Museveni and Finance Minister Matia Kasaija that Uganda’s average growth rate had stood at 6.6 per cent per annum over the past 29 years.

The writer is a Media Consultant. Email: samobbo@yahoo.co.uk

http://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/Prosper/Has-liberalisation-delivered-Uganda-from-hell--Part-I/-/688616/3215502/-/377mesz/-/index.html

SETTING A PRICE FOR YOUR CAR

Determinants for car prices

Prevailing price
Kabagambe explains that before deciding on the price, you should first research about the prices on the market. He says you need to have information about the best selling cars and make sure that your vehicle is in a good mechanical state. Some of the cars that are currently on high demand include; the Toyota Premio, Raum and Vitz, among others.

Fuel consumption
“Cars with low fuel consumption or emission are preferred by low income earners. Cars that are in good mechanical state for example with good tyres, shock absorbers and engine may be sold faster than those whose mechanical condition is demanding.”

Availability of spare parts 
Availability of spare parts also matters in car pricing since secondhand cars are commonly preferred by people with limited income. They usually avoid vehicles whose spare parts are not readily available.

Year of manufacture
Some car buyers consider the year of manufacture and distance covered. Therefore, one should price the vehicle in consideration of the manufacture date and the distance it has covered.

Seating capacity
The seating capacity is also essential especially for people with big families. They prefer cars that can comfortably accommodate their families. Other buyers particularly business people are interested in the loading capability.
“You can look for buyers through contacting used car dealers, workmates, social media and trusted friends who cannot connive with buyers to cheat you,” he explains.

Julius Muhirwoha, a businessman and a student at Kampala International University recently bought a Vitz through a broker at Shs8m.

He told the brokers to look for car whose registration number plate was between UAL and UAM anticipating that cars in that range are in good condition.
“I made sure ownership was changed before I fully pay the amount we had agreed upon. I did this because I think car dealers are dishonest,” says Muhirwoha. Therefore, just like Muhirwoha, you need to take some precautions before buying or selling a car.

Selling and buying tips

An agreement
Robert Mucwa, a lawyer with Tumusiime, Irumba and Advocates and Solicitors on Kampala Road, explains that there should be stringent conditions protecting both the seller and buyer. The terms and conditions should be clearly spelt out in an agreement stating whether the payment will be full or in instalments.

The terms may include the period when the balance would be fully cleared, the condition in which the car was at the time of sale. “Such an agreement is important especially to the seller because every person has different driving skills and thus a person might want to reclaim his money after blowing your car engine.”
Kabagambe says in case the buyer pays half of the amount agreed upon, make sure you include a clause in the agreement that binds the buyer to pay even when the vehicle is involved in an accident before completion of the debt.

Witnesses
The treaty must be witnessed by reliable people, for instance the spouse, parents, sibling or employer. In case you are a dealer in used cars, better register your business because one may take advantage and adamantly refuse to clear the balance. It becomes difficult to win such a case in court since you may not be having documents that recognise you as a car dealer.

Protect yourself
Mucwa advises that the agreement you make should protect you from problems in case the car engine breaks down due to bad driving. Therefore, you the seller should mention in the agreement that you are not liable for what follows after payment.

Have full details
“In case the buyer pays half of the money, make sure you have their details such as physical (residence) address, workplace, employer, and telephone contacts. If possible, ask them to present sureties who can be his employer, sibling and parents whose financial status is appealing.”
Mucwa says having such vital information would save you from incurring losses in case the buyer does not comply with clearing the balance. He also adds that you should not give log book to the buyer until they have fully cleared.

Precautions

Check for ownership
Muhammad Kawalya; director SMK Tyre Centre on Bombo Road also adds that, “You should not make payments for a car before checking ownership from URA. This would save you from being conned and end up in jail in case the seller stole it from another person.”

When checking for ownership, you must go with a photocopy of the seller’s identity card, passport or driving permit because there are many people who could have similar vehicles in similar names.

Take your time when paying
“Do not carry sums of money before you see the vehicle you are going to buy. Some car sellers cannot be trusted. They can connive with thieves upon seeing the money especially when you disagree on the price,” Kawalya advises.

Avoid unclear sales
He adds that you should be quick to distance yourself from the deal once URA finds the vehicle registered in the names of another person. Other things you should put into consideration while buying a used car is the status of the engine, shock absorbers, seats, and lights. It is better to use your own mechanic to check the state of the vehicle.

Inspection
“When checking the condition of the car, use your mechanic to inspect it. He must explain to both the buyer and seller which parts need repair before you sit down for the bargain,” Mucwa adds.

The log book
Do not leave the seller’s premises without a log book in case you have paid the full amount. Mucwa says, “The seller should also give you the URA transaction number and password that you use to change ownership. When you leave the log book behind, the former owner might accuse you of theft since the law recognises the person with the log book as the rightful owner.”

However, “In case you have paid part of the required amount, make sure you are given a receipt. Some people are dishonest and can easily deny that you paid.”
“If it is possible, include the warranty period in the covenant because the vehicle may breakdown just after purchase. If the agreement does not mention the warranty period, it becomes difficult to bail yourself out of the problem,” Mucwa explains.

Make transfers immediately

Singling out the December accident that claimed the life of Bukomansimbi District Woman MP Susan Namaganda, Dr Steven Kasiima, director traffic police warns the public against delaying change of vehicle ownership. The taxi that crashed into the legislator’s car had been sold to another person who was yet to transfer ownership into his name. The police had to arrest the former alongside the latter to help police in investigations.

REF

http://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/Auto/Setting-a-price-for-your-car/-/688614/3090772/-/item/0/-/jxwk59/-/index.html

STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE PAY-DATE WAIT BY WILLIAM LUBUULWA

For Jean Mayende, it wasn’t a lack of savings that led to her living pay-date to pay-date. In fact, the 45-year-old Nabbingo resident had had her National Social Security Fund monthly obligations diligently remitted. However, when she lost a job, she realised her money was out of reach, and she had to resort to very frugal living. 
“We tell people to put money into retirement accounts where they can’t touch easily,” Mayende says, “but we need an emergency fund to carry us through ugly situations.”

Mayende eventually landed a job of marketing agriculture produce and was able to put away some money in an accessible savings account in a bank for a year’s worth of expenses. This was achieved after going through a period of stretching one salary to the next. 
We all have our financial challenges but people end up living pay-date to pay-date for a number of reasons. They could be forced into the situation by events outside their control, or it could be the result of financial choices they make. Either way, it is not an enjoyable way to live. Here is how to get out of the pay cycle and on a comfortable budget.

The first major step one should take is to cut spending. If you have a written budget, and still do not have any extra coin left each month, the rational thing to do would be to reduce expenses. 
Mayende says her period of pay-date to pay-date living was a little more manageable because she already had a history of frugal living upon which to fall back. After graduating from university in debt, she discovered how to survive without much money. Today, she has long serviced her debts, but she is still cautious about her spending. 
“If you can’t pay cash for something, it’s probably not a thing you really need,” she says of most purchases.

Saving a million Shillings a year
For those who are trying frugal living for the first time, here is my submission on ways to save just a million Shillings a year. Perhaps many Ugandans cannot save Shs1m because of their monthly incomes and responsibilities, but the suggestions below can be very helpful.
As you leave home, pack personal lunch rather than eat out in a posh restaurant. I am not talking about fast foods here. Simple packs like chapatti and beans (call it kikomando) can do. It does not hurt to carry drinking water to your workplace instead of buying a bottle or two of mineral water every day.

Eat light and cut down on meaty foods. Although eating a lot of meat can be a sweet thing to both the young and old, it can cause unnecessary discomfort to the daily consumer in terms of health yet it is also costly.
Some people are passionate about laundry and do it almost all the time throughout the week. This wastes a lot of water, soap and personal energy. To save on money spent on water bills, laundry should be done once or twice a week. You should also consider using gas instead of electricity; and always have your cooking done in a short time to save gas or charcoal. But the greatest step to save is to stop impulse shopping - become a critical consumer by ending unplanned shopping.

The above may not seem to amount to a lot of monetary sense, but someone who follows these suggestions continually could save up to a million Shillings per year to begin a modest investment. 
Nonetheless, it is pointless to put in practice all the above money-saving approaches at once to make a positive difference. I would suggest that you go slowly on a new approach after introducing one for some time. Check your weakness, and put a spending limit on the items/areas that greatly consume your would-be savings.

But the best way to jump the pay-date to pay-date wait is to think of innovative ways of growing one’s incoming money. Do whatever it takes to find legal ways of increasing availability of cash in your possession. Although money-making ideas may not be as numerous as cost-cutting alternatives, there are still adequate ways of bringing in more money into your pockets. These ideas might be useful: if your current employer is comfortable with it, get a second or even a third job outside the hours of your present work; ask for a promotion if this is appropriate; or return to college for more practical and relevant skills which could lead to a better-paying appointment. 
Of course, some of the above routes may take time and, going back to school, is very expensive these days. But still, increasing one’s income remains the best approach to breaking the pay-date to pay-date cycle, so long as you stay clear-headed during spending. Little behavioural changes can add up to become enough savings in your bank account.

Handling your money situation
Let me share my experience at a recent editors’ conference. A female colleague confessed to me that she had a budget shortfall every month. She, however, explained that she planned to open a side business to cover the shortage. The fault I had with her, just like with many others, was that she did not believe in having a written budget. 
“Don’t start trying to earn more money until you are able to direct all that you have what to do,” another colleague who had heard us, advised.

In a number of situations, making more money may not even be necessary to address an apparent scarcity. Many people may be having enough money to cover their necessary expenses, but they could be reckless spenders. 
“Sometimes it’s not a money problem,” a third colleague said, “it is always lack of financial discipline.” Indeed, as this friend noted, many people are exceptionally badly behaved in management of personal finances.
Simon Kasirye, a Kampala-based publishing expert and author of ‘Vision 2040: How You Can Prosper as Uganda Prospers’ is very passionate about personal finance management and economic patriotism. He advises that the best way to gain control of your finances is to take advantage of wise counsel and decide how to spend your money. 
He recommends government to take centre stage in sensitising all the youth financially irrespective of their education levels. This, he says, can help them manage their finances and keep them out of the pay-date to pay-date imprisonment.

“Youthful Ugandans should take advantage of our soils and benefit from agriculture. There is a lot to do in agriculture even when you are a salaried employee. There is viable business in agriculture,” Kasirye further advises.
He suggests having a written plan that looks at two or three months into the future, so as not to be caught off guard by impromptu expenses; and not to be a financial prisoner of the pay-date.

Living pay-date to pay-date may be temporary for some people, but many workers live such a distressing life perpetually. Mayende knew she would ultimately earn enough to give her financial relief someday, but it was an endless struggle to meet her personal needs. “Sometimes I couldn’t even buy simple clothes in a flea market,” she remembers. 
While extra income can fix gaps, living pay-date to pay-date has more to do with an individual’s lifestyle than their income. We know that Ugandan MPs earn well over Shillings 15m but some of them constantly battle with financial lawsuits; yet we see many financially sound teachers who make a miserable half a million Shillings per month!

Museveni campaigns at night in Gulu

SHARE BOOKMARKPRINTRATING

NRM presidential candidate Yoweri Museveni addresses a rally at Kaunda Grounds in Gulu Municipality on Sunday. photo by J. OCUNGI. 

By  JULIUS OCUNGI

Posted  Tuesday, February 16   2016 at  02:00

SHARE THIS STORY

  

 0
inShare

Kampala- NationaNational Resistance Movement (NRM) presidential candidate Yoweri Museveni on Sunday wound up his campaign in northern Uganda with assurance that the coming elections will be conducted without any violence.

Mr Museveni made lightning visits to Arua, Lira and concluded his rally at Kaunda Grounds in Gulu Municipality, starting at 7.30 pm and ending at about 8.30pm.

The night rally was conducted under the watchful eyes of police officers, who their boss Gen Kale Kayihura, had earlier warned FDC’s Kizza Besigye against holding night rallies while defending Mr Museveni over similar offences.

Mr Museveni expressed delight in visiting the three districts saying he had come to hit the last nail in the election campaign.

Speaking in a mixture of English and Acholi, Mr Museveni said despite the much spoken about tension, there would be no violence after the elections.

“The NRM government was the one that brought kuc (peace). There is no way the Opposition can cause violence because they do not know how to fight, how can they? Mr Museveni said.

“The likes of Dr Besigye and his counterparts have been making a lot of nonsense lately of disturbing the country with false information, but I can assure you the country will be peaceful,” Mr Museveni added.

He said NRM stands on solid foundations of peace and unity and it’s upon those pillars that his government has been able to restore order in the country.

“We don’t condone sectarianism, ethnicity and religious discrimination, we value every one, because we believe the country belongs to each and every one irrespective of their origin,” Mr Museveni said.

It is against the Electoral Commission guidelines for any candidate to campaign after 6pm.

SEE RELATED STORY

Kayihura warns Besigye over night rallies, defends Museveni

editorial@ug.nationmedia.com

SMALL BUSINESSES TASKED TO KEEP BOOKS OF ACCOUNTS

SMALL BUSINESSES TASKED TO KEEP BOOKS OF ACCOUNTS

Government has now made it mandatory for businesses whose trading licences cost more than three currency points (Shs60, 000 and above) to keep books of accounts.

According to ministry of Trade statistics, majority of businesses paying for such licences operate informally and without records.

Announcing the development contained in the Trade Licensing Amendment Act, 2015, at the ministry offices last week, Trade minister Amelia Kyambadde said the changes are meant to streamline trade in goods and services.

She said: “Government has amended the Trade Licensing Act cap 101 following the assent by the President to the Trade Licensing Amendment Act 2015.”

She continued: “The Amendment Act provides for a number of changes in the trade licensing of business that Kampala Capital City Authority, local and urban authorities, business community and other stakeholders need to take note of and ensure compliance.”

The changes, she said, provide for mandatory keeping of books of accounts by businesses that pay a licence of more than three currency points. One currency point is an equivalent of Shs20,000.

When contacted on Tuesday, Kampala City Traders Association chairman Everest Kayondo applauded the amendments, saying most of them were as a result of their demand and prudence.

He said: “Book keeping and other amendments in that law were our proposals. We have argued for bookkeeping because it helps the owner of the enterprise understand whether he/she is making profit or recording losses.”

The amended law, according to Ms Kyambadde, also provides for increase in the number of grades in a city, municipality and towns from the current 2 to 4 grades. This is important for purposes of determining trade licencing fees.

Unlike before where traders would pay for licences irrespective of its grade— size of business, the new law requires that each enterprise is licenced according to its size.

It also provides for trade in services. Previously the law only considered licencing trade in goods, leaving out trade in services, depriving authorities the much needed revenue from such entities minting money in the service industry.

Changing the duration of the licence to 12 months from date of issue rather than expiry on every December 31 is the other addition in this law, which Mr Kayondo said was one of the contentious provisions of the previous law.

Licensing act

The Trade Licensing Amendment Act, 2015 does not only wipe away multiple payments but also widens revenue sources for authorities. This is evident with licencing of trade in services as opposed to only trade in goods as it was the case since 1960.

iladu@ug.nationmedia.com

http://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/Markets/Small-businesses-tasked-to-keep-books-of-accounts/-/688606/3016944/-/skx93oz/-/index.html

Why you may need to put a caveat over your land

WHO CAN LODGE A CAVEAT?
Andrew Tusigwire, a High Court commissioner working with Bashasha & Co Advocates, says a caveat can be lodged by any person with an equitable interest in the land.
It can be done by a land seller who has received an installment for the purchase of the land but is no longer the registered owner, a purchaser who has paid part of the money for buying the land but is not the registered owner, a person with a right of access to the land, for instance, a son, daughter or widow of the deceased immediately after death or by a tenant on leased land. In some cases, it may be done by a lender under an equitable mortgage or a person who has a benefit of a court order concerning the land.

HOW TO PUT A CAVEAT ON PROPERTY
Obbo warns that the caveator must provide details for his claims with the accurate description of the piece of land to be caveated with sketches attached.
A copy of evidence to support your claim will be requested by the lawyer who will interview you to establish your position (interest) on the land.
“It takes one to have original documents of the title that have been witnessed by the lands registrar, a statutory declaration by the commissioner of oaths (affidavit) to back your claim for the title, a dated caveat application, passport photos and general receipts of payment,” says Obbo.

These documents are presented to the Registrar of titles at the headquarters on Parliamentary Avenue, at Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) offices as well as other regional offices in Wakiso, Mbarara, Jinja, Mukono and Masaka depending on where the piece of land you want to caveat is located.

Acknowledgement of a lodged caveat, according to Obbo, takes 10 working days.
“Although in rare cases, a caveat may be rejected, especially if the caveator is an impersonator or if he has no particular reason for lodging the caveat, says Tusingwire.
“If a person lodges the caveat wrongly, the caveatee can claim for the pecuniary losses incurred and the caveator must compensate him unless they agree to settle the matter outside court,” he says.

COSTS AND IMPLICATIONS
You will pay Shs10,000 for stamp duty, registration fees of Shs15,000 and if the caveat affects more than one title, you will have to pay Shs5,000 for every extra title.
Registered proprietors who mortgaged property should review their mortgage terms before lodging a caveat as the terms and conditions of the mortgage may prevent the process of lodging any caveat without the consent of the mortgagee.

Implications
It is very important to get legal advice while dealing with a caveat or understanding the implications of lodging one. Whoever deals with caveated land does it at his or her own risk unless you seek consent from the caveator.
“When a person lodges a caveat on a given piece of land, other people are assumed to deal with it at their own risk and will stop the registration of any documents that would need to be signed by the caveator,”says Tusingwire.
One should also know that one can apply for removal or claim for compensation where a person has improperly lodged a caveat and caused loss.
“A caveat prevents registration of any further dealings with the land that affects the caveated interest, unless if the caveator consents or the caveat lapses, is cancelled, rejected by the titles registrar or is withdrawn by the caveator.
If a caveator lodges a caveat, it is very hard to sell the land to another person,” adds Tusingwire.
The proprietor has the option of applying to the Supreme Court for removal of the caveat if it was placed without a reasonable cause.

CAN A CAVEAT BE WITHDRAWN?

A caveat may be removed by a court order; a caveatee may request the caveator to remove it or the caveator may remove it by himself because the interest claimed under the caveat was satisfied.
“A caveat lodged by a beneficiary of the estate of the deceased person does not lapse. It cannot be terminated by anyone except the caveator or by court order. However, the caveat can be removed by the caveator any time he or she feels like, especially when they feel satisfied by the lodgement. If someone lodges a caveat, it usually lapses within 60 days or may agree with the caveatee to cancel the caveat,” says Tusingwire.
If the caveator is not satisfied and the caveat is about to expire, he or she can prevent lapsing by lodging an order of the Supreme Court to extend the caveat date expiry. This will require you to be summoned before court.

Here’s how we can pay teachers more but should we? Well, it’s complicated

Here’s how we can pay teachers more but should we? Well, it’s complicated

Share Bookmark Print Rating

By Daniel K. Kalinaki

Posted  Thursday, November 19   2015 at  02:00

In Summary

The question, therefore, isn’t whether we can afford to pay teachers better; it is whether it is right to do so and the opportunity cost of such a policy move. As any economist will tell you, just because you can afford something doesn’t mean you should pay for it. And here, as we shall see next week, things get rather complicated.

SHARE THIS STORY

Tweet

FDC candidate Kizza Besigye’s campaign proposal to pay primary school teachers Shs650,000 per month and their secondary counterparts Shs1 million if elected president has generated plenty of debate about whether we can afford such an outlay.

Can we afford it? Let’s do some quick back-of-the-envelop maths. According to Uganda Bureau of Statistics, there were 171,000 primary and 54,509 secondary school teachers in 2012/13. According to data from the Ministry of Public Service, the average wage for primary school teachers in the 2015/16 Financial year is Shs400,584, which is oddly higher than that for secondary school teachers at Shs308,817 (I couldn’t find the median figure which would, I believe, cure this abnormality).

According to Education minister Jessica Alupo, the wage bill for primary school teachers was Shs822 billion in 2014, while that for secondary school teachers was Shs202 billion, a total of Shs1.22 trillion.

Assuming the increment were to be made overnight, rather than phased in over five years, Besigye’s new government would need to raise an extra Shs970 billion (Shs458b for primary, Shs512b for secondary teachers) to meet the higher wages. If you assume that the increase in the Education ministry budget already factored into the 2016/17 Financial Year, which the new government will have to work with, will all go into higher salaries, the amount of new money required falls to Shs552 billion.

There are three ways to raise this extra money. One is to push Uganda Revenue Authority to meet its projected target of collecting Shs12.6 trillion in tax revenue next financial year, which would bring in an extra Shs1.5 trillion – almost three times what is required. This would require the cutting back of tax exemptions to push our tax-to-GDP ratio to 13.7 per cent, which is still far below the Sub-Saharan average of about 17 per cent.

Assuming that URA fails to meet the target, the second option would be to cut the fat in the budget. The numbers for the 2015/16 draft estimates from the Finance Ministry are useful here. Presidential donations alone have averaged around Shs90 billion in each recent financial year. That’s already 16 per cent of the cash we need.

There is plenty more fat: State House has Shs3.9 billion for “special meals and drinks”, Shs2.8 billion for rent, Shs4.7 billion for “welfare and entertainment” and Shs51 billion for travel. Cutting each of these items by half, as well as the Shs16 billion allocated to staff, allowances and welfare of the President and Vice President’s families, would raise another Shs13.7 billion without the sky falling in – visitors can always drink sparkling wine rather than champagne.

Other rationalisation opportunities abound: Shs29b is earmarked on mobilising against poverty, while the Office of the Prime Minister has Shs12.8b for humanitarian assistance, Shs46b for “agricultural supplies”, Shs26b in “compensation to third parties”, Shs27.6b for Luweero-Rwenzori, Shs30b in “post-war recovery programmes and presidential pledges”, Shs54b in Nusaf and Shs5.8b in “strengthening and retooling” the office. Many of these programmes are duplicated in other ministries.

The OPM also has Shs8b for buying land, as does the Ministry of Agriculture, which signed off on a vast research facility recently saying it didn’t need the prime land! Add to this Shs8 billion for internal travel in the same ministry and an average of a billion shillings per ministry for workshops and seminars and you easily have at least Shs360 billion in freed-up cash.

The balance, of under Shs190 billion can then easily be raised from reallocating money to areas the new government doesn’t consider to be essential, or from raising new or increasing existing taxes.

The question, therefore, isn’t whether we can afford to pay teachers better; it is whether it is right to do so and the opportunity cost of such a policy move. As any economist will tell you, just because you can afford something doesn’t mean you should pay for it. And here, as we shall see next week, things get rather complicated.

Mr Kalinaki is a Ugandan journalist based in Nairobi. dkalinaki@ke.nationmedia.com Twitter: @Kalinaki